Fast Takes from Fast Break: WAS vs NYC
Author: Ben Mertens
PC: Major League Quidditch
Here it is folks- the 2022 East division Championship! While Boston and Charlotte will certainly have something to say about it, the New York Titans and Washington Admirals enter the 2022 season as co-favorites to win the division, and both rank as legitimate title contenders. And to start the season, they’ll face each other in a 3 game series that may well decide who enters championship weekend as a 1 seed. While it’s unfortunate for these two teams to have to face each other so early in the season while they’re still trying to figure things out, it makes for an incredibly exciting and high stakes opening weekend.
Here are 5 key things to watch for as these two would-be champions face off on the Titans Home turf of Hoboken, New Jersey:
Transition
In game 1 of last year’s series between these teams, Washington jumped out to an early 30 points lead (which could’ve been 50 if not for a dropped pass and a beater foul taking away 2 goals), as their beaters dominated control and New York’s chasers rushed in the face of pressure defense, resulting in missed shots and turnovers that Washington turned into points. If Washington can replicate that performance, New York is cooked - Washington’s chasers were able to get by New York’s consistently in transition, and New York has lost numerous heavy hitters from last year.
New York managed to right the ship after their initial struggles, regaining control, forcing Washington into turnovers of their own, and going on to sweep the series. Washington had far fewer transition opportunities in games 2 and 3 and their offense completely stalled. New York needs to keep Washington from playing in transition again this year to win the series.
If New York is able to hold bludger control consistently this year, they may be able to turn the tables and get transition opportunities of their own. The absence of Tate Kay and Jason Rosenberg from the roster is massive - Kay is the type of beater who can take over entire games, while Rosenberg has historically been a problem for Washington’s beaters. Still, New York managed to slightly outduel Washington in the beater game last year, and that was without Deivn Lee. With Lee and Tess Mullins in the fold, New York should be hunting for chances to create turnovers on defense. Washington is not a patient team - if New York’s beaters can win exchanges and launch into a press, Washington will either throw the ball away, or try to attack and score against the press if the defense overextends. Washington had more success trying to attack against pressing defenses as the season wore on last summer, and New York’s chasers will need to be ready for the counterattack this weekend. If New York succeeds in turning Washington over, they’ll need to take advantage of every chance they get to run in translation, as Washington’s half court defense will be hard to crack.
Washington’s Beaters
Washington has its top two beating pairs back from last summer - Cody Nardone & Melissa Smith and Bernie Berges & Katryna Hicks. Nardone and Smith played more minutes but the +/- numbers preferred Berges and Hicks as a pair in last year's series. Both pairs are stylistically different - Nardone and Smith more trigger happy, Berges and Hicks more methodical, which makes Washington less predictable for its opponents. All four will need to exorcise some demons in this series - Devin Lee has historically been a problem for Hicks and Smith, while Rachel Ayella-Silver flummoxed Berges and Nardone in last summer’s series.
Behind those two top pairs, Washington will need a big series from Zain Bhalia and Heather Farnan. Bhalia is making his first competitive appearance since 2020 while Farnan is making her MLQ debut after a dominant college career with the University of Maryland. This pair is the X-factor; if they can maintain the same level of play as the veterans, Washington should be in good shape. Washington has also rostered spark plug Colin Bourn, who should get some run when Washington’s in need of a boost.
If Washignton’s beaters can create turnovers and transition opportunities they’re in excellent shape, but even if they just succeed in achieving parity with New York’s beaters, Washington’s edge in chaser defense and offense should be enough to carry them to a win. The key here is coordination between the chasers and beaters - with Lee’s propensity for dodges, and Ayella-Silver ability to block, catch, and dodge, Washington will not always win the first exchange when trying to regain control on offense. But if Washington’s chasers can buy their beaters multiple shots at control per possession, or put enough pressure on New York’s defense that New York’s beaters can’t key in on Washington’s, then the Admirals beaters should be able to win back control. Berges and Hicks in particular are excellent at holding control once they seize it, and Washington’s defense with bludger control should be close to unbreakable.
What Does New York’s Offense Look Like?
This is a two-pronged question: who plays for New York, and what is their plan and style on offense? The core of New York’s first line will almost certainly be Assistant coaches Jon Jackson and Lindsay Marella. After those two, New York has lost almost every chaser who played major minutes last season, with the exception of Mike Li, who seems the favorite to start as the point defender. That leaves one spot on the starting line and New York could go in any direction here. Do they use Leo Fried, who was electric for Harvard in the USQ season, as an offball shooter and secondary facilitator role similar to JC Arencibia last season? Or do they deploy him as the main facilitator for the second unit? Head coach Frank Minson and Byron Ng both also could be used either as the final piece on the first unit or as a bigger part of the second unit (or does Minson have to make a return to beating with Kay and Rosenberg unavailable?). As this is opening weekend, I’d expect the team to try multiple combinations throughout the series to see what works.
New York’s second line will also be entirely new - one of Fried or Ng seems likely to be in the green, along with some combination of Janko Gvozdenovic, Michael Jonhston, Annika Kim, Eric Pagoda, Molly Potter, and Lexi Raffa at chaser. There’s a lot of talent here - all players are good hitters, Fried and Ng were excellent at running the offense at the college level, Kim and Raffa can work as facilitators or play finishers, and Pagoada and Gvozdenovic are good off-ball options who can also handle the ball in a pinch. Still, this group of players have limited experience together and their first test comes against perhaps the best chaser defense in the league.
Regardless of who plays, I think we’ll see a different New York offense from last year. The Titans have historically played an extremely methodical, Austin-esque offense that’s focused on maximizing every possession. In this series especially, it would behoove New York to go a little faster. Washington’s half court defense will be nasty to play against. If you succeed in breaking down point defenders Bryan Mulcahy or Riley Starrs, congratulations! Your reward is that you now have to finish past some combination of Justin Cole, Dale Farnan, Rachel Heald, and Tyler Trudeau on the hoops. Try to pass behind or around the zone and Washington’s chasers will close out hard and be there to greet you. New York has multiple great drivers and passers, but playing this Washington team 3 times will get exhausting if you’re getting hit every play.
The easiest way to break Washington’s defense is to beat them down the field and attack before it’s set. New York, like any team, is always willing to push against zero bludgers, but especially when Lee and Ayella-Silver are in the game, they should look to push even against 1 bludger, and ask their beaters to aggressively lead the way in and beat out chasers. That approach risks bludger control, but New York is going to need some extra goals in this series.
When New York does have to face a set defense, however, I would expect them to run their familiar methodical style, though perhaps with more ball movement instead of just 1 ballhandler dominating the ball in half court sets. Jon Jackson is obviously the team’s best driver, but players like Marella and Minson are threatening options when they get the ball in space and force the defense to rotate. Having more of the offense flow through ancillary ballhandlers will give New York more variety in their attack and a better chance of breaking down Washington’s ferocious defense.
Can Washington get Rachel Heald going?
Last year Heald had a very quiet regular season, with just 7 goals, before exploding at championships with a hat trick masterpiece in game 2 against the Austin Outlaws. If Heald could do that against the eventual champions, she can do it in the regular season as well - Washington just needs to put her in position to succeed. Heald doesn’t need much to get to work. If she has any space to drive, she’ll take it and make the right read, whether that’s a shot or a pass. Heald is deadly from midrange as a shooter, and if the defense overcorrects to her shooting threat she can throw a pinpoint pass. There’s no good answer for her if she’s driving.
Too many times last summer, however, Heald would have the ball, and her teammates would either be stationary or attempting low percentage cuts that required a home run pass into traffic. That made it easy for the opposing team’s point defenders and beaters to pressure Heald and either force a turnover or a harmless pass to a teammate in poor position which the defense could quickly rotate too. Heald’s teammates need to be active when she’s facilitating and give her a chance to break down the defense.
Heald thrived in the Austin matchup because she had chances to attack from behind the hoops. From that position, Heald has the advantage of attacking a defense that’s scrambling. When Austin failed to close out to her she was able to nail her shots - when they did attempt to close out hard, she was able to either juke the closing defender or make the next pass, which led to good looks for teammates. Heald is too good of a facilitator to be used only behind the hoops, but varying her positioning makes Washington's offense unpredictable and harder to guard. If Heald is rolling, New York is in for a difficult series.
PC: Major League Quidditch
Washington’s Chaser lines
Washington, unlike New York, has the luxury of returning its entire chaser core from last season. But there’s still questions to be answered. Normal starting point defender John Sheridan is out for this series. The team will most likely start Bryan Mulchacy in his palace next to Julia Baer, Dale Farnan, and Tyler Trudeau. The second line should then be Justin Cole, Rachel Heald, Riley Starrs, and one of TJ Generette or David Littleton. Last year Washington stuck to just two lines for the most part, and I wouldn’t expect a full third line this year either, but there should be room to tinker with the lines throughout the day.
Trudeau has great chemistry with Baer and Mulcahy which is why the first line should work so well. But he also played very well with Heald and Generette last summer, and I’d like to see some shaking of the lines as the day goes on. The team should also experiment with using Justin Cole in more of the pure wing role he played in Boston in 2019 rather than the lead or co-lead ball handler he often was on the Admirals last summer. Having Cole don the white headband and play alongside Trudeau or new addition Ben Phillips is worth trying (Cole, Heald and Phillips, plus your pick of Washington’s numerous point defenders, would be a very exciting line).
One key for Washignton will be managing the middle of the game, roughly from the 12 to 20 minute mark. Last summer, Washington got into trouble multiple times by either not having their best lineups on the field during the endgame, or by having their best players on the field but exhausted and diminished for those crucial final possessions. Getting their stars a breather in the middle section of the game will put them in better position for the endgame. Ideally, Trudeau plays a shorter second shift and is off the field by the sixteen minute mark so he can either go in at seeker or come back fresh for snitch-on-pitch, when he can tear through bludgerless defenses. Similarly, the Admirals rotated Baer and Heald last summer and rarely dipped into their depth at female chaser. With the tweaked ruleset this summer, Washington should want both Heald and Baer on the field during snitch on pitch, necessitating a few minutes in the midgame where neither is on field and both can rest. The extremely underrated Juli Nuetzel can step in and more than handle the load for a shift in this portion of the game (alternatively, the team can use Nuetzel, a very good defender, during the snitch on pitch minutes). Washington has too much quality depth to find themselves exhausted at the end of games.
Prediction
On paper, everything screams Washington. The Admirals are bringing back their entire chasing core and making additions around it, while the Titans will likely roll out a starting line that hasn’t previously played in a game together. Washington has the edge in the chasing game, while New York has the very slight edge in the beating game, and will need to prove it can maintain that edge when Lee and Ayella-Silver rest. The absence of Kay and Rosenberg looms very large for New York - they’ll need a huge series from CJ Junior, Kellan Cupid or Jason Ng to make up for their absence.
However, there are concerns for Washington. The Admirals have a tendency to play sloppy, especially early in the season, which partially offsets the errors New York might make due to the lack of chemistry. That and the aggressive beating game of New York could hurt Washington’s offense and defense. Washington is, of course, capable of forcing turnovers too, but I expect New York’s turnovers to be less costly and for New York to have bludger control for more of the game, robbing Washington of chances to get out in transition.
Washington should be more successful at breaking down New York’s half court defense than vice versa however. Close games likely favor New York, who had the better seeking game last season, and also looked more polished in late game and next goal wins possessions. But it’s hard to imagine New York winning any games in a blowout, whereas Washignton clearly has the chance to build a huge lead if they get repeated chances to run.
This series should be closer than it appears on paper, but in the end there are a lot more questions about New York than Washington. New York does have paths to victory - domination in the beater game, extra transition chances, limiting Washington’s chances to run, and winning the seeker game. But Washington has more paths, and so they’re the favorites to take the series and eventually the division.
Washington 2-1.
