Fast Takes with Fast Break: Austin v San Antonio
Author: Jacob Ehrlich
PC: Major League Quadball
In what is normally the marquee matchup in the South Division, this year’s matchup does not carry the same prestige as it has in years past. While San Antonio comes into this series 5-1, and in firm control of second in the South Division, their record speaks more to their opponent’s level of play in the division rather than the Soldados’ own. On the other side of the pitch, Austin has only had one series this season, in which they dominated a struggling League City. One headline going into this weekend is the Soldados matching up against former teammates Daniel Williams, Mel Kite, Miguel Esparza, and Eric Reyes. At the start of the Soldados season, there were questions surrounding the team on how they would fill the shoes left by core members of previous iterations of the team. Some of those questions have been answered, most notably Jay Stewart picking up the ball-carrying and scoring load left by the departure of Esparza, with Matthew Blackwood as an alternative when he's not playing the wing or back side. Milena Sousa and Alyssa Villalba have admirably filled the shoes left by Kite, but still have room to improve their offensive versatility as shooters and ball carriers, where Kite so often found herself for the Soldados. The return of veteran Luke Langlanis and rise of David Avila has stabilized the chaser rotations but they will continue to need others to step into larger roles.
Unfortunately, the Soldados have not yet been able to find a true replacement for Daniel Williams, and this was most evident in their first two series. In New Orleans, the San Antonio beating core could not hang with Curse's Josh Mansfield and Sarah Kneiling, and at home, they struggled with KC’s Justin Dewick and Keighlyn Johnson. Veteran beaters Kris de la Fuenta and Maya Hinebaugh have provided a high floor when on the field, but the rest of this beating core- hailing from UTSA- has yet to show any real strategic diversity (especially with one dodgeball). The group frequently over-commits in attempts to gain dodgeball control by taking engagements deep in their opponent’s zones, opening themselves up for fastbreak and transition goals from their opponents. Furthermore, the beaters show a tendency to take engagements without their partners or chasers being in proper positions to take advantage. This was an issue for the group at USQ nationals, where they failed to impress against more cerebral beaters in their Day 1 matchup against Rutgers and Day 2 in the finals against Harvard. In order to be competitive against a deep and elite Austin beating group, the SA beaters will need to step up in some big ways. If there's any doubt to the quality of the core they're facing, every beater on Austin’s roster but one has been part of the US National Team program, even if they stretch to a seventh beater and have Kasye Bevers put on the black. To combat the tried and true efficacy of Austin's beating, San Antonio’s first step is to rethink their offensive strategy. Instead of rushing into offenses with only one dodgeball, allowing their partners and chasers to set up would offer more opportunities for goals. If Austin’s beaters decide to play closer to the midline than the keeper zone as they did against League City, then San Antonio’s beaters should welcome those high engagements as their chasers have the athleticism to stretch the field and find open space in the back. Successful execution of that type of press break should force Austin into a half-court defense—a situation that could help San Antonio sniff out a competitive game against the league favorites.
On the chaser end, anyone watching San Antonio's film knows that Jay Stewart has controlled the energy of their offense. He's gotten practice against many of the players he's going to face this weekend, from USNT practices and the 2022 MLQ season. He'll look to capitalize on that, dunking and shooting over the heads of the Outlaws to climb the score in Soldados’ favor. If Austin responds by committing a good amount of defensive resources, Stewart will trust Blackwood and Langlinas to take the right spaces to facilitate a goal. To do so, Stewart will need to consistently break tackles from Austin’s main point defenders Austin Villejo, Louis Sanchez, and Eric Reyes. This could bring him right into the clutches of the two chasers leading Austin in defensive stops—Josh Johnson and Michael "Yada" Parada. Stewart's known for his speed, but he'll also need to facilitate ball movement during contact or the goals he's been used to scoring this season turn into disrupted offenses. For Austin, an understanding of Soldados’ offense will likely lead to one strategy: keep the ball out of Stewart's hand. Whether that takes the form of sticking a beater to him all game or hitting him high up before he can get in his groove, expect Austin to create a more favorable matchup by leading the quadball into anyone else's hands. Other face-offs we're excited to see are current USNT chaser Miguel Esparza versus former USNTDA Carlos Prado (both graduates of a different generation of the UTSA program) and Mel Kite versus Milena Sousa.
For seeker, both teams have multiple names they could throw out against the runner, and matching the style of seeker to the team's strengths while seekers are out will decide who catches. For Austin with their fast-paced and dominant seeker beating, they may send in Pierce Wilson and Parada, to otherwise leave Eric Reyes in what will likely be a transition only chaser game. Wilson and Parada both carry a more methodical seeking style, which plays well to a beater-established bubble defense on the runner. If it takes too long, beaters may abandon the runner altogether and get the goals necessary to win. On San Antonio's side, we'll likely see John Alvarez don the yellow, looking for the success he found in New Orleans game 3 (using the precious few seconds he was allowed near the runner in beater-dominated space to earn 35). If he remains stymied, Christian Cortez may take the yellow out of necessity. Swapping Sousa, Hinebaugh, or De La Fuente from their primary roles will likely equal a negative swing in the overall plus/minus while the runner is out, and Soldados simply can't afford that if they want to clinch a chance of victory. Alvarez and Cortez both show intelligence and wit for explosive attempts through beater covered space, as Cortez showed against Creighton at USQ Cup this past April. Aside from these five players, San Antonio has shown the increasing utility of its players, so a thunder gun strategy may ultimately prove effective with a rotating lineup of seekers with small shifts.
On paper, Austin Outlaws have San Antonio Soldados down BAD. Outlaws have chip winners at every position in the game, and no simple weakness to exploit by keeping one player out of the game. Under the cool and collected coaching of Jackson Johnson, they'll come into the weekend to take care of business as they train for their "real" challenge, the Benepe Cup. If they can maintain the gameplay and cohesion we expect of their caliber, they’ll comfortably continue their reign as the unseated rulers of the South Division. If they don't, their floor is well within reach of the hungry Soldados, and this army is ready to pop off against anyone they catch sleeping. The Soldados are coming into the weekend with a chip on their shoulder, spurred by all the spectators who keep saying they can't. If they can continue to show the heart and drive they have so far, they can continue to prove us wrong in yet another prediction. Even with that heart though, we think they're running straight into a brick wall in the Outlaws. The holes in their strategy were shown in New Orleans, and the Outlaws are gonna use them as target practice.
Prediction: 3-0 AUSTIN
