Fast Takes with Fast Break: Boston v Washingon
Author: Ben Mertens
PC: Major League Quadball
The battle for second place in the East comes down to this weekend as the Washington Admirals host the Boston Forge. The stakes could not be higher: a win not only sends you to the quarterfinals but, assuming North Division Championships goes as expected, probably sets up a matchup against the Toronto Raiders that either team would be heavily favored in. Both teams have the exact same record at 6-3, both having swept the Charlotte Aviators and the Ottawa Black Bears and having been swept themselves by the New York Titans. Both teams should come in feeling like they deserve to be the favorite—Boston can point to the sweep against New York being relatively close without Max Havlin (who will return this weekend) and Lulu Xu (who will not), while Washington can point out that their close game 1 loss against New York all the way back in the first week of the season, leaving them with a lot of time to grow. The growth they showed in a complete shellacking of the Charlotte Aviators last weekend, which came with Katryna Hicks absent and Bernie Berges mostly ceding time to other beaters.
Does it all come down to those beaters? Two summers ago, when Washington won this series for the only time, Xu was injured and Havlin was unable to dominate as Berges and Hicks were able to mostly contain him. Last summer, Havlin and Xu were back in full force, particularly in the concluding plays of the third game (played weeks after the rest of the series due to a lighting mishap), where they completely embarrassed the Admirals. It’s tempting to paint this as a contest of Berges and Hicks vs. Havlin and whoever Boston chooses to partner him with this weekend (the obvious choice would be Serena Monteiro, but don’t rule out a curve ball).
But it’s never that simple. Part of the story two summers ago was that Berges and Hicks, along with Cody Nardone and Melissa Smith, could key in against Boston’s beaters because the Admirals’ chasers were able to outmatch the older Boston chasing core. Following the changing of the guard that took place last summer, Boston is a faster, younger, and scrappier team. In their best moments against New York, the Forge were able to generate good looks even against bludger control from the Titans. Younger beaters like Will Andrews, Andrew Bittles, and Fiona Wisehart stepped up big in Havlin’s absence and gave the Forge some chances to get out in transition as well. The Forge don’t need Havlin and Monteiro to completely dominate to win this series, they just need them to do enough to keep Washington unbalanced.
The Trees Zone, never a mainstay in the East division, could be seen a lot this weekend. Boston broke it out in spurts against the Titans, as it allowed some of their younger beaters to stay closer to their own hoops. The Forge are very aggressive at trying to create presses out of this zone, sending their beaters to attack as soon as the ball goes to the side of the field (“the well” in quadball jargon), which wrong-footed New York early in that series, and completely bamboozled the Admirals in game 3 last summer. The Admirals have stuck to their aggressive high press 2-2 zone this season, and I would expect to see that continue, but don’t be surprised if they break out the trees against a Forge team that gets most of its points from shots—especially if the Forge are consistently able to break the Admirals high press early.
A key item to watch will be who both teams turn to if the game is close. For all the talent in the Forge beater room (in addition to the young talent already mentioned, the Forge also have Kieran Collier and Leeanne Dillman, and will need a big series from them), you assume the team Forge are going to turn to Havlin and Monteiro with the game on the line, and their USNT chasers—Athena Mayor, Taylor Crawford, and Ian Scura. However, Scura and Crawford are usually on different lines due to Scura’s chemistry with Zach Doyle and Harry Greenhouse. Still, there’s a relatively small pool of players I would expect Boston to close with.
For Washington, though, anything seems possible. The team is extremely liberal with their substitutions, preferring to cycle through the entire 21-person roster extremely quickly—the better to keep everyone fresh for their high-pressing defense and fast-paced offense. That strategy has served them well and has meant a good deal of shakeup in who plays with who. As a result, the team could go in any direction at the end of a close game. Hicks and Berges are stars, but Colin Bourn and Diana Howard are the team’s go-to flag runner on-pitch option. Rob Rice and Adrian Koretsky profile as the next Bourn and Howard—a pair that comes together for the first time in MLQ and quickly grows into a key part of the rotation. Zain Bhalia and Melissa Smith could be used as wild cards if the team wants to go for a more aggressive approach. At chaser, the casual fan might expect to see former champions Tyler Trudeau, Julia Baer, and Bryan Mulcahy out there with fan favorite TJ Generette in a next-goal-wins situation, and that lineup would be strong—but Washington has also loved what it’s gotten from young star Shane McConaghie and assistant coaches Riley Starrs and Rachel Heald who are excellent options with the game on the line. Players further down the roster, like Julia Rankin, Dale Farnan, David Littleton, and Julianne Nuetzel, all have experience winning games in tight moments too. Ultimately, the answer for coach Keegan Remy-Miller may just be whoever is freshest or playing the best when the moment comes.
And with all those caveats and asides, I still want to talk about Havlin and Monteiro. It feels like the Admirals will have an answer for just about everything the Forge can throw at them, except for a true vintage Havlin performance where he and his partner completely take over the field. Xu is key to making those sequences happen and there’s no replacing her, but Monteiro is a rising star who will be looking to make a statement after she was mostly left on the sidelines for the USNT at World Cup. If Havlin is fully recovered from his injury and in peak condition, and he and Monteiro gel quickly, Washington will have a difficult series. If they aren’t able to situate the full Havlin-Xu experience, Boston will need something else to get them over the line. Maybe that’s a big series from Collier and Dillman, who have given a lot of the Washington beaters problems in the past. Maybe it’s Boston hitting a lot of shots—shots that will be open if they can break down Washington’s zone. Maybe it’s Boston coming up with a key flag runner grab after they were unable to grab it when it counted in game 3 against New York.
Ultimately the series feels like a toss-up. Either team can win, and everything may come down to a few random plays—a quick flag runner grab, an unfortunate ref call, or a bad bounce could swing the whole series. I am tempted to take a cop-out and predict the lights go out in game 3 again, but MLQ, unfortunately, scheduled the series for the afternoon this year. Boston normally finds a way to gut it out when the chips are down, and with Havlin back in the fold, I’m picking them to do so again by the slimmest of margins.
Prediction: Boston 2-1
