Fast Takes with Fast Break: New York vs Boston
Author: Ben Mertens
PC: Major League Quidditch
Implications:
The stakes could hardly be higher as New York and Boston face off this weekend. The two rivals enter this weekend with the chance to win the division or finish as low as third in the division. New York enters the weekend with a record of 8-1, while Boston is 7-1. The Washington Admirals are lurking just behind at 8-3 and still have to conclude game 3 against Boston, which was cut short due to the lights going out. Therefore:
If New York wins 3-0, they finish 11-1 and win the division. Boston falls to 7-4, which means game 3 of Boston-Washington will be for 2nd in the division; if Boston wins that game, both teams finish 8-4, and Boston owns the tiebreaker as a result of winning the Washington series 2-1.
If New York wins 2-1, they finish 10-2 and win the division. Boston moves to 8-3 on the season, and again game 3 of Boston-Washington determines who finishes second.
If Boston wins 3-0, they move to 10-1 and win the division. Game 3 against Washington no longer matters for Boston, but it remains crucial for Washington - New York finishes 8-4 while Washington is 8-3. Since New York owns the head-to-head tiebreaker over Washington, if Washington loses game 3 to Boston and also finishes 8-4, New York finishes second. If Washington beats Boston, they finish second instead.
If Boston wins 2-1, chaos ensues:
New York finishes 9-3, While Boston sits at 9-2 and Washington at 8-3. If Boston goes on to win game 3 against Washington, they finish 9-3 and own the tiebreaker over New York, thus winning the division, while New York finishes 2nd, and Washington finishes third
If Washington beats Boston, however, all 3 teams finish 9-3, and head-to-head is thrown out because all three teams own the head-to-head tiebreaker over 1 opponent but not both (Washington over Boston, Boston over New York, New York over Washington). The next tiebreaker is snitch catch percentage. Washington finished the season with 7 of 12 catches (while game 3 against Boston is still to finish, Washington did catch the snitch prior to game 3 being called, and that catch will stand), while New York is currently 6 for 9 and Boston just 2 for 9. It is impossible for Boston to catch either Washington or New York on snitch catch percentage, so they will lose the tiebreaker to both. Depending on these 3 games, New York could be ahead, tied, or behind Washington on snitch catch, meaning it’s extra crucial for New York to come up with grabs this weekend.
If New York goes 1 for 3 on catches this weekend and finishes tied with Washington at 7 catches, the next tiebreaker is Quaffle Point Differential. New York currently has a healthy lead on Washington (+102.2 per game vs. +65.4 per game), although we only get to this tiebreaker if New York loses the series to Boston, which would presumably lower their point differential.
If QPD is an exact tie, the final tiebreaker is a coin flip. Can we count on MLQ to come up with as high-quality a live stream for the division-winning coin flip as they have for their series of the week?
The Matchup:
Alright, enough chitter-chatter about tiebreakers. Onto the matchup:
Earlier this season, we talked at length about the Titan’s impressive defensive versatility against the Washington Admirals. While New York played mark throughout the series, they showed several different looks within the broad idea of mark. Against the Charlotte Aviators, New York played some mark and some 2-2 zone, and once again played with some different ideas within those bigger concepts. Frank Minson and his assistants have been excellent at game preparation, and we expect the same thing this weekend. Look for the Titans to try multiple different looks to keep the Forge off balance.
One look I would expect would be some version of the “Baylor” or “Trees” Zone, where 3 quaffle players stand directly on the three hoops and the fourth plays point. We saw Washington try this against Boston and experience some success with it. The appeal of this zone against Boston is obvious: Boston’s 2 biggest sources of offense this season have been Ian Scura Shooting and Ian Scura passing to wing chasers behind the hoops. The hoops zone, especially the way Washington plays it (which they stole/borrowed from the Austin Outlaws) with 1 of their beaters standing behind the hoops, takes away Boston’s most comfortable form of offense.
Boston knows how to attack this, of course:
If Boston’s beaters, Max Havlin and Lulu Xu, can get deep into the compressed zone and beat the chasers on the hoops, a shot will eventually open up. In fact, multiple shots open up in this play: after dispatching Washington’s beaters, Havlin (#14) and Xu (#15) beat both Julia Baer (#53) and Rachel Heald (#30), freeing up multiple hoops to shoot on. Heald recovers but then hedges to cover the hoop Baer has vacated, enabling Boston’s Chris LaBuddie (#54) to sink the shot.
This defense can work even if Boston knows how to counter it: 1) this is not the way Boston is most comfortable playing, and 2) the way Boston attacks it is risky. Look how deep Havlin and Xu are at the start of that play before winning back control - if they get beat there, it’s an easy press for the defense. That risk doubles because Boston likes to go fast, and their ballhandlers showed a tendency to rush a little against both Washington and Charlotte. If an ill-advised shot or pass is taken and the beaters are positioned poorly, it’s an easy goal going the other way.
Still, Boston knows how to attack this zone, and I wouldn’t expect New York to play it all. But it’s the type of surprise adjustment I expect from New York at some point in this series, even if just for a few plays. For most of the series, however, we can expect New York to play mark. I expect we’ll see a lot like the play below:
Notice that while New York is playing mark here, their defensive chasers will sink off their mark to get back to the hoops if the player they’re guarding isn’t in a threatening position. In this way, the Titans can still prevent Boston from finding easy shots or passes to cutters right at the hoops, and be well positioned to gang tackle when the drive comes, while still being able to spring quickly into a press if their beaters win an exchange.
To crack this, Boston needs to focus on ball movement and heavy movement from their off-ball chasers. Ageless veterans like Harry greenhouse (having a very good bounceback season after a quiet 2021 season) and Taylor Crawford have excelled at moving without the ball, catching it in good spots, and finding the next pass or hitting a good shot. Zack Doyle has been monstrous off-ball. Rachel Manhardt has been excellent at making connective passes as a secondary ballhandler. Morgan Bertram’s driving and shooting is deadly and was sorely missed against Washington. Boston needs more plays where 2, 3, or all 4 of their offensive chasers touch the ball, instead of plays where ballhandlers like Scura, Ryan Pfenning, and Chris LaBuddie isolate against the other team’s best defender. All 3 of those players are extremely talented drivers and scorers, but we’ve seen Pfenning struggle to win one-on-one against elite point defenders this season, and Scura has been guilty of holding onto the ball for too long. The priority in the half-court should be stringing multiple passes together, and trusting that the ball will work its way back to Scura and Pfenning once the defense has rotated, giving them easier shots and driving lanes. New York has too many good tacklers, and too much overall discipline, for Boston to win by going one-on-one.
It will be easiest for Boston to find good opportunities if their beaters are dominant, and that may be the biggest question in this series. To my eyes, New York’s Devin Lee has been the best beater in the division so far this season. The season-ending injury to Rachel Ayella-Silver hurts New York, but Tessa Mullins has been incredibly impressive, filling her teammates’ spot, as has Kerri Donnelly. The Titans also have Tate Kay making his season debut, and just in time. Who Kay plays with and how rusty he is coming off a nearly year-long absence will be a big factor in this series. New York is down Jason Rosenberg, but has Kellan Cupid, CJ Junior and the underrated Vincenzo Cicco as options.
PC: Boston Forge
How Boston deploys its beaters could determine this series. Does Boston send out its star pair, Havin and Xu, against Lee and Mullins, or count on another pair to try and contain Lee and unleash Havlin and Xu against another pair where they may be able to truly dominate? Steven Beltizky and Leeanne Dillman have been up and down this season, but they have the skill set and style that could give Lee and Mullins problems. The absence of Fiona Wisehart, who was fantastic in the Admirals series, is a problem for Boston. Still, Boston maintains their enviable depth at beater with the pairs of Kieran Collier & Serena Monteiro and William Andrews & Erin McCrady. As the series progresses and with the division on the line, Coach Tom DeMouth will have to decide between continuing to rely on his depth as he has all season or shortening the rotation. For game 1, at least, I would expect to see all four pairs from Boston.
Boston will need to end up with the edge in the beater game to win this series. Talented as their chaser core is, I think Boston needs transition points more than New York, as I give New York the edge in a half-court game. New York’s chasers are a touch more physical and have been more disciplined on both sides of the ball than Boston’s this season. New York has been better at manufacturing points in the half-court via their methodical play and ability to find the right matchups. New York’s offense always finds the open chaser, which has led to breakout seasons from off-ball players like Janko Gvozdenovic and Lexi Raffa. Primary ballhandlers Jon Jackson and Lindsay Marella have struck the perfect balance of finding the open chaser and hunting for their shot. In contrast, Leo Fried’s faster and more chaotic style has given New York a jolt of energy it sometimes lacked in previous seasons. Mike Li and Michel Johnston’s ability to play with or without the ball gives New York versatility. The ideal version of Boston’s offense looks very similar to New York’s, but New York is already playing it.
Boston will have counters ready. We saw New York sometimes struggle, particularly late, to break down Washington’s physical half-court defense. Boston can come close to matching that physicality with Peter Lawrence, Harry Greenhouse, Taylor Crawford, and Ryan Pfenning (for both offensive and defensive reasons, I would like to see Boston try playing Scura and Pfenning together at some point this weekend). New York completely shredded Charlotte’s 2-2 zone in their series, and I expect to see Boston mostly stick to mark against them. If Boston does want to try zone at some point, their chasers need to be flying off the hoops to make hits, and their beaters need to be ready to step up aggressively. Players like Mike Li and Gvozendovic destroyed Charlotte by finding the open space in the zone and either hitting shots or drawing the beat and making the extra swing against the broken zone. Only a highly disciplined zone will work.
As mentioned earlier, New York has been far more successful in the snitch game this season. Boston’s ability to come up with grabs this weekend will be hindered by the absence of Wisehart, who together with Dillman formed Boston’s best snitch-on-pitch pair this season. Even with Dillman and Wisehart together, Boston went 1-2 on snitches against Washington because, in game 2, their seekers and beaters lost track of TJ Generette despite having control, allowing him to sneak in for a grab that never should have happened while the snitch was distracted with Boston’s seeker. The return of Tyler Beckmann is huge for Boston. Still, regardless of who’s on the field, Boston needs to avoid making that mistake again because Kellan Cupid was able to make a catch in almost the same situation in New York’s series against Washington.
Overall, I expect a close and competitive series. Boston’s path to victory comes by winning the beating game and getting their offense going in transition (and actually capitalizing on those opportunities, as Boston threw away multiple chances in transition against Washington due to sloppy passing). New York would also love to get out and run, but they can settle for merely achieving parity in the beating game and riding superior half-court offensive execution. Ultimately, this series probably comes down to each team’s top beating pairs, Lee and Mullins for New York and Havlin and Xu for Boston. Ultimately, despite having spent 10 minutes blabbering at the top about the complicated tiebreaker scenarios, I think New York makes all of that irrelevant by taking the series and the division this weekend, setting up Boston to play for second against Washington.
Prediction New York 2-1
