Fast Takes with Fast Breaks: New York v Charlotte
Authors: Tanner Bonheimmer & Tad Walters
PC: MLQ
As the Charlotte Aviators and New York Titans prepare to face off in each of their final series of the regular season, they find themselves on two very different sides of the East Division, giving each team a unique reason to heavily invest into this Aviators’ home series.
The Titans stand atop the East Division with an 8-1 record, suffering a singular loss to the Boston Forge, who boast a 7-2 record themselves. With Forge on their heels in the standings, the Titans will look to secure the top seed in the East Division by winning at least two games against the Aviators. A Titans sweep would guarantee that they finish the regular season with the most wins in the East Division, while a 2-1 series victory paired with a Forge sweep over the Ottawa Black Bears on August 3 would leave the Titans and Forge tied with a 10-2 record with the Titans holding the tie-breaker due to their 2-1 series victory over Forge on June 15.
The Aviators, on the other hand, sit in fourth place of the East Division, only securing wins in a shaky 3-0 sweep against the Black Bears at the East Super Series on June 22 and 23. Although a disappointing season so far for the Aviators, this has still been enough to secure their spot at MLQ Champs in Howard County. Thus, with their spot secured at champs and no way to change their standing in the East Division, the result of this series does not matter for the Aviators, and they can shift their focus to modifying their strategy and process in preparation for champs.
Despite the stakes for both teams, neither team will be facing off at full strength this weekend. Several key players for both teams are not rostered for this series, including both players that have played and have yet to make their 2024 season debut.
The Titans have had significant roster turnover throughout the course of the season. Several impact players have not played in every series for the Titans this season. Most notably, Josh Johnson, Molly Potter, Jason Ng, and Mohammed “Mo” Haggag have all missed time this season, while Johnson and Potter have only played in one series. Despite this, the Titans have found success in every series this year, so the level of concern with this roster inconsistency is minimal. That is why, despite the following players not on the Titans roster for this series, the Titans are far from having to panic: Annika Kim, Michael "Yada" Parada, Josh Johnson, Jacob Ehrlich, Vincenzo Cicco, Avery Olivar, Janice Lu, Elizabeth Lawson-Keister, Mo Haggag, Frank Minson, and Zachary Armantrading will not be taking the flight to North Carolina. Obviously there is not enough room for every missing player to have a spot on the series roster, but so many of these players would provide an invaluable impact to the Titans against the Aviators this weekend. While this amount of missing talent would be debilitating for just about any team, the Titans may be the best equipped of any team in MLQ to ask for contributions from depth players. Despite the missing talent on this roster, the Titans are still rostering four players on the USNT in Rachel Ayella-Silver, Jon Jackson, Tate Kay, and Lindsay Marella. Additionally they have three players on the USNTDA in Shakthi Kodeswaran, Jason Ng, and Jason Wu. Considering stars such as Devin Lee, Tessa Mullins, and Kellan Cupid emphasizes just how talented this Titans squad is that will be facing off against the Aviators. While the roster may be initially disappointing due to the names that are left off, the Titans are still bringing a roster willing and capable of securing the top seed in the East Division.
The Aviators have had less roster turnover this season than the Titans, but the subtractions that the Aviators have suffered have been arguably more impactful when considering the depth of both rosters. The Aviators have been without USNT beater Celine Richard for the entirety of this season and only rostered USNT utility player Ryan Davis for their season opening series against Boston in which Davis primarily donned the black headband and did not get a chance in the seeking game, their calling card. Davis will make their return this series, while Richard’s debut this season will have to wait until MLQ Champs. Outside of Richard, the Aviators are bringing most of their core to this home series against the Titans. Their offensive leaders in Zachary Thompson, Oliver “Lee” Hodge, and Caleb Brooks are available, along with their primary beating corps outside of Joe Goldberg. Some notable missing players are Mohamed-Yahia “MY” Monawar and MLQ rookie Austin Cruz. These subtractions may especially sting this series, as the Aviators may look to make strategic and line adjustments in preparation for champs that these players will miss out on. The Aviators are likely disappointed to not get a look in the regular season at how Richard changes the beating game, but this absence in addition to the absence of Cruz and Monawar will not hurt as bad as they are in a series of very little consequence.
This series will be primarily dictated by three aspects: the beating game, physicality, and the seeker matchups. There are going to be quite a few question marks in this series, but the beating game is not one of them.
The Titans have both superior top-end beater talent and beater depth. Tate Kay, Tessa Mullins, Rachel Ayella-Silver, Devin Lee, Jason Ng, and Christian Barnes will be the primary beaters to match up against Kody LaBauve, Josh Peck, Tony Bonadio, Lauren Hirsch, Wren Morgan, Stephanie Peck, Micki Haralson, and possibly Ryan Davis. When making beater lines, any three beater lines that the Titans can field from those six players alone will most likely outduel any line that the Aviators can make with their eight beaters. The Titans should have sustained success in the beater game that should allow for any Aviators’ dodgeballs to be on the ground much of the time and reduce the quadball game to a strict chaser-on-chaser matchup. The Aviators already faced a very similar situation against the Boston Forge to open the season, so expect the Titans to learn from that film and apply much of the same pressure. The Aviators will not just concede the beater game and will likely try to get creative with their beater lines, including possibly asking Davis to beat. There should be flashes of brilliance for Aviators’ beaters, as plenty of their beaters are incredibly talented, but they lack the experience that many of the Titans' beaters have. Ultimately, there seems to be a considerable beating advantage for the Titans that will likely dictate the entirety of the quadball game, as the Titans will often have dodgeball control in support of both their offense and defense with the ability to create zero-dodgeball advantages.
The level of physicality in this matchup will determine just how much the Titans can take advantage of their presumptive beater advantage. Getting the Aviators’ dodgeballs on the ground and forcing them to run an offensive possession without beater support only means so much unless there is pressure from the Titans’ chasers to supplement. In the Aviators’ opening series against Forge, the Forge chasers, especially Peter Lawrence, were willing to hit a ball carrier as soon as dodgeballs were on the ground, and Forge had great success in those possessions. Without the immediate pressure and wraps, the Aviators have the time to at least send the quadball deep in opposing territory or out of the back boundary line. While that is an overall negative play, it avoids the disaster of not scoring a goal on offense and then turning the ball over to immediately concede a goal on defense. The Titans cannot let this happen. They must bring the disaster to the Aviators, or else much of the advantage of zero dodgeball situations will be wasted. As important as meeting ball carriers with pressure and physicality is vital to the Titans, it is almost doubly so important to the Aviators. When they possess at least one dodgeball, they need to make an emphasis on hitting the ball carriers. At the very least it will buy their defense time to make a beat or swarm for a turnover, or it gives the defensive beaters time to make a play to get dodgeballs on the ground when a Titans’ beater may be focused on tapping out Aviators’ chasers. Additionally, physicality will be vital to stopping the Titans’ fast breaks. Whether it is a wrap to the ground to physically stop the quadball from advancing or just slowing the ball carrier down until a beater can get a dodgeball in the play, this contact is critically necessary to prevent the quadball game from getting out of hand for the Aviators. When considering how contact factors into each team’s recipe for success in this series, it seems that the Titans have a slight advantage in this aspect of the game. The Titans simply possess more people willing to consistently wrap or tackle a ball carrier than the Aviators this season.
The last aspect of this matchup that will dictate the results is what players will match up in the seeker game. In the nine games that the Aviators have played this year, the flag runner has been caught in all nine games. Additionally, the flag runner has been caught in eight of the nine games that the Titans have played this season. If this trend holds, the 35 points for the flag runner catch will be a massive swing throughout the series. Given who may be wearing the gold headband, this could be the most entertaining aspect of the series. The Aviators, although missing their leader in flag runner catches, Austin Cruz, may be utilizing their best seeker, Ryan Davis, for the first time. For the Titans, they are missing Mo Haggag, who is tied with Christos Kaldis for the MLQ lead for flag runner catch percentage at 66.7%, but they still have a formidable lineup of seekers including Kellan Cupid, Eric Pagoada, and Jason Ng. Out of this crop of seekers, Davis stands at the top, but they may not seek at all, as they did not in their series against Boston. While it is not a guarantee that Davis seeks, it should be expected that they will, as the Aviators would surely like to get a look at their strategy and lines during SOP* before champs. Even if Davis seeks, it is not a guarantee that they will have enough one-on-one time with the flag runner to catch. If the Titans have the beater advantage that is presumed, they could utilize that advantage in the seeking game and neutralize Davis altogether, likely allowing the Titans to catch. On the other hand, that presumed beater advantage could be so effective that the Titans have such an advantage in the quadball game that they decide to invest their beaters in the quadball game to get 60 points instead of worrying about a flag catch at all, essentially allowing the Aviators to catch. It will likely be a mix of both of those strategies, but the Titans may try running alternative beater lines during SOP to provide a backup plan at champs if one of Tate Kay or Tessa Mullins gets injured. In this situation, the beaters would be locked onto the seeker game and would give the Titans the advantage. Given these factors, the Titans likely have the slight advantage in the seeker game, allowing for a possible 2-1 Titans-Aviators split of flag runner catches.
Altogether, the Titans seemingly have an advantage in all of the most impactful phases of the game. The Aviators also only have pride as an incentive to go all out and try to win the series compared to the possible progress they might make as a team by trying new lines and strategies. Thus, with the Aviators likely to try new and different things that will likely not find immediate success and the Titans having the advantage in several phases of the game, it seems evident that the Titans will win this series and secure the top seed in the East Division.
Official Prediction: Titans 3-0
*Seekers on pitch
