Fast Takes with FastBreak: Charlotte v Washington
Authors: Ben Mertens & Alexander Wicken
The air meets the sea this Saturday as the Charlotte Aviators face the Washington Admirals in North Carolina. Charlotte comes into the series 3-6 while Washington is 3-3. Both teams boast players returning from impressive showings at the IQA World Cup, including two Aviators and three Admirals who left the weekend with hardware for the USNT. The Admirals lead the all time series 5-1 in the regular season, but the Aviators have been a consistent thorn in the Admirals side, stealing one game off them in 2021 and nearly doing it again in 2022 before Washington ended up cleaning the sweep. For Charlotte, winning this series gives them a very good shot at third in the division, which would be their best finish ever, while Washington needs a sweep to keep pace in the race with the Boston Forge for second in the division.
In their most recent games, Charlotte swept Ottawa and showed the league that they can string together three consistent games in a series. This upward trend is crucial as the Aviators will need to be consistent against a closely matched Admirals team. Against New York, Charlotte demonstrated that for stretches they can play tight with any team and that their defense is tough as nails. They have struggled against a high chaser press, and will need to overcome unrelenting pressure from Washington’s chasers and beaters throughout the series.
The Aviators' offense and defense have run primarily through Lee Hodge and Zachary Thompson who lead the team in goals, assists, and defensive stops for the season. However, Charlotte must adapt for this weekend as Hodge is not rostered for the series. An exciting return to the roster is MY Monawar, who missed the East Super Series, but I expect an impressive performance after Monawar’s pivotal role in African Nations’ exceptional 5th place run at the IQA World Cup.
In the dodgeball game, Celine Richard remains a dependable force on offense and defense. With clutch stops and gritty beater battles, Richard proves every game why they are USNT level talent. The Charlotte beater core will be without Joe Goldberg, but regular staples Kody LaBauve, Tony Bonadio, and Lauren Hirsch should be expected to fill Goldberg’s minutes. The Aviators Beaters will have a hard-fought first 20 minutes to maintain control against a very strong and deep Admirals core, but the Aviators are lethal with or without control during Flag Runner on Pitch. Charlotte’s beating is essential, but as one of the best seekers in the league (and the world), Ryan Davis certainly helps their beaters with clutch flag catches at pivotal moments. If any of these games come down to a flag catch, Charlotte’s beater and seeker cohesion is a force to be reckoned with.
The Admirals are coming off a month-long gap between games and have had a weird, underwhelming season thus far. They opened with an almost upset in game 1 against the Titans, only to be summarily dismantled in games 2 and 3, then brought a short roster to Ottawa, and only narrowly escaped with a sweep. This will be our first time seeing the complete Admirals since that opening series against New York.
In their Ottawa series, Washington struggled to win and maintain bludger control against a disciplined effort from the Black Bears beater corps. If those problems persist, Washington will be in trouble—Ottawa’s beaters, while much improved, do not feature anyone on Richard’s level, and Charlotte has a much stronger chaser core. It’s tempting to blame the beaters when a team struggles with dodgeball control, but Washington’s chasers were equally to blame for the lack of control—they committed a number of bad turnovers and were ineffective at passing around the Ottawa press. Bad turnovers rob your beaters of more chances to win control back on offense and lead to no bludger transition opportunities that cost your beaters a chance to win control back on defense.
Washington was much more disciplined in the face of New York’s press attempts and with the return of ball handlers like Tyler Trudeau and Rachel Heald and off ball scoring threats TJ Generette and Bryan Mulcachy, I expect Washington to be more effective at beating presses and creating extra chances for their beaters to win control back. In addition, Charlotte’s Achilles heel since their inception has been their beaters throwing away control on low percentage attempts to create plays on offense, something that has persisted this year. Those factors should combine to tilt dodgeball control towards Washington in the aggregate—but if the Aviators are more disciplined with their beating approach and use their excellent physicality to force the admirals into mistakes, we should be in for some close games. Watch early to see how Bernie Berges and Katryna Hicks look against Richard—if the Admirals duo are playing confident and in control, their chasers will have room to feast. If Richard and her partners stymie them, then it will be on Washington’s chasers to demonstrate their ability to move the ball around a press.
The player to watch on both ends for Charlotte is MY Monawar. The Aviators need him to step up defensively to replace Hodge as well as have an uptick in scoring. The two do not have the same style—Hodge is a facilitator who is best with the ball in his hands orchestrating the offense from the top of the field. Monawar has played that role when necessary, but is most dangerous as an off-ball rover who can find seams on the side and behind defenses, and use his high level speed and strength to finish in unexpected ways. With Hodge absent, the Aviators need Monawar scoring a lot, but to do that they need to get him the ball in the places he thrives, rather than expecting him to beat the Admirals A+ point defenders all by himself. Using beaters to clear space on the wing and having players like Madison Burns and Ryan Davis draw attention and then setting Monawar up will be the Aviators best chance at buckets.
If any game does come down to the flag runner, don’t blink—Generette and Davis are, for my money anyways, the two fastest seekers in the league today, with multiple under 30 second grabs to each of their names. Each team will need to plot out exactly how they want their beaters and seekers to play flag runner on pitch, as one errant throw or bad attempt could be all the opposing seeker needs.
History tells us there will be at least one game in this series that comes down to the last several plays. Washington has the better overall resume in that situation, and without Hodge, who hit the game-winner in their only win over Washington in 2021, the Aviators will need to prove someone else can take them over the finish line.
Prediction: Ben’s pick: Washington 3-0
Alexander’s pick: Washington 2-1