Fast Takes with Fast Break: Charlotte v Washington

Authors: Tanner Bonheimmer & Ben Mertens

PC: MLQ

This year’s East Super Series is essentially the season decider for all 3 teams involved. With Boston Forge and New York Titans’ early season dominance making them the heavy favorites for the top 2 spots in the division, this weekend should determine 3rd through 5th in the Division. The team that comes out of this weekend with two series victories can feel secure that they have claimed third in the division and have a relatively easy path in the play-in bracket at championships, while losing both series will essentially end any hope of championship qualification.

The Washington Admirals and Charlotte Aviators both enter the weekend 0-3 coming off of difficult series against Titans and Forge respectively, while the Ottawa Black Bears are making their season debut. We breakdown each separate series below

This weekend promises to be a renewal of what was once a very hot rivalry. In Charlotte’s inaugural season they won their first ever game against Washington before the Admirals rallied to take the series 2-1, only for the teams to play another matchup in the play-in bracket of MLQ championships, which Washington narrowly won. In the past two years however, Washington has swept the series, winning most of the games by a comfortable margin.

This year should more closely resemble that exciting 2021 series. Both teams are struggling to deal with the loss of key beaters.Washington has struggled without Bernie Berges and Katryna Hicks, with none of their new pairs yet reaching the heights of their predecessors. Washington has a solid top two pairs, with coaches Colin Bourn and Adrian Koretsky as the top pair, and Rob Rice and Jack Butler close behind. The team was clearly searching for its third pair at the season opening series against New York, giving minutes to a stable of young beaters, as well as experimenting with veteran chasers David Littleton and Juli Nuetzel, who has a successful history as a utility player.

Charlotte, meanwhile, is still reeling from the loss of Celine Richard. While the team boasts other top notch beaters, including Head Coach Kody LeBauve, Joe Goldberg, and Tony Bonadio, the loss of Richard’s ability to consistently win exchanges and her split second decision making left the team looking overwhelmed this season. They ran out of answers in the face of Boston Forge’s press attempts in the Aviators season opening defeat.

This weekend, Aviators shouldn't expect the same style of press from Admirals, giving their beaters more of a chance to choose the stage for battles.With this being the most important series of Washington’s season, I would expect to see more beater minutes from Littleton and Nuetzel, who impressed in limited minutes against New York Titans’ dominant core in Week 1, while still finding some minutes for young beaters like A.T. Thangai. 

Rather than expecting one team to dominate beater play, expect a game of runs—a sequence where Charlotte wins control and uses their aggressive style to generate turnovers, followed by sequences where Washington holds control and uses their more patient style to take control of the game flow. The key question in the beater game will be which team’s chasers take better advantage of the times their beaters are winning, and if one side can figure the other out first and go on an extended dodgeball control run.

Washington’s chances of victory are improved by two factors: firstly, despite the return of Lee Hodge and MY Monawar, Washington is deeper in the chaser game. With Zan Siddiqui and John Sheridan making their season debut, Washington hosts an unbeatable point defender rotation of those two, Riley Starrs, Justin Kraemer, and Bryan Mulcahy. Physical wings like Julia Rankin and Liz Stone make this a strong defense from top to bottom. Washington will need shot blockers like Shane McConaghie and John Gaffigan to be prepared for Charlotte’s shooters, in particular Zachary Thompson, who has quietly become one of the best pure scorers in the league. To win, Charlotte will need chasers like Madison Burns and Melissa Ross to be heavily involved in order to present a more versatile attack, rather than relying solely on Hodge and Thompson's individual greatness. Ultimately, Washington has more answers on offense, despite Charlotte’s improving chaser core.

The second is the absence of Ryan Davis. With both teams relatively close on paper, the near guaranteed 35 points per game Davis brings as a seeker would have proved decisive. Instead, the seeker game now looks closer to even. While Tony Bonadio and Liz Stone both have important flag grabs to their names, it is possible we could see a game decided by which coach makes the decision to bail on the flag runner and try to run up the score in the Quadball game.

This series looks like a coin flip, and multiple games could come down to a few possessions or even a golden goal. Ultimately, expect Washington’s deeper and more veteran chasers to be the ones to grit out a tough win at the end, but don’t be surprised if Charlotte proves this wrong.

Prediction: Washington 2-1