Fast Takes with Fast Break: Ottawa v Charlotte & Washington
Authors: Tanner Bonnheimer, Darren Bell, & Ben Mertens
PC: MLQ
This year’s East Super Series is essentially the season decider for all 3 teams involved. With Boston Forge and New York Titans’ early season dominance making them the heavy favorites for the top 2 spots in the division, this weekend should determine 3rd through 5th in the Division. The team that comes out of this weekend with two series victories can feel secure that they have claimed third in the division and have a relatively easy path in the play-in bracket at championships, while losing both series will essentially end any hope of championship qualification.
The Washington Admirals and Charlotte Aviators both enter the weekend 0-3 coming off of difficult series against Titans and Forge respectively, while the Ottawa Black Bears are making their season debut.
Charlotte vs. Ottawa
Depending on your opinion of Charlotte and Washington, this series could be a battle for the last spot at champs coming from the East. Despite what some people may think, the Aviators will not be letting off the gas in this matchup against Ottawa so they can more heavily invest in their matchup against the Admirals. While an easier path through the play-in bracket at champs that would be earned through a third-place finish in the East is appealing, the Aviators will first be aiming to secure qualification, then worry about third place if the opportunity arises. Similarly, the Black Bears will be fighting for wins wherever they can get them, so expect to see the best talent on both sides battling throughout the series.
The Aviators are bringing a roster missing much of their top talent. Ryan Davis, Celine Richard, and Mohamed-Yahia “MY” Monawar are all notably missing. Davis and Richard’s skill, experience, and game plan execution, especially during SOP*, will be sorely missed. While Monawar wasn’t a massive statistical producer for the Aviators last season, he is poised to handle a considerable role within the offense and is a ball-carrying option that would’ve provided value in this matchup against the Black Bears. Oliver “Lee” Hodge is making his season debut and looks to take over primary ball-handling responsibilities and form a strong 1-2 scoring punch with teammate Zachary Thompson. The Aviators are additionally making one other chaser substitution during this super series, as Jason Woodard will be facing the Admirals and Wilson Brockway will face the Black Bears.
The Black Bears enter this series with much of the same roster concerns. They are bringing a short roster of 13 players with only two dedicated beaters Lex Nakanishi and Zach Reiken. While every player on a 13-person roster will already need to play heavy minutes, an especially large load will be asked of the utility players on this roster. Unlike the Aviators, there are no substitutions or differences between the rosters in this super series. So with only 13 players and six games, every single Black Bear will not only see some action, but will be asked to contribute in major ways.
Charlotte is coming off a matchup against Boston where it almost could not have gone worse. A combination of being short-staffed at positions of need and facing a formidable Forge team kept the Aviators from keeping even a single game in range. With the absence of Richard and other beaters, Ryan Davis spent heavy minutes donning the black headband, so much so that they never even got a chance to seek, interrupting what is typically appointment viewing. Amidst the addition of Davis to the beating game, the Aviators struggled to compete against Forge. The beating pair of Lulu Xu and Max Havlin found a way to consistently get every dodgeball on the ground, and Forge’s subsequent two beating lines found success in the same route. With dodgeballs frequently out of the play, the Aviator’s chasers were facing constant pressing and hard contact. This left chasers with the options of either holding onto the quadball and losing possession from a beat or a swift wrap and tackle or sending a long pass with the hopes of finding a chaser deep. Both options almost always resulted in a turnover. The good news for the Aviators is that everything that they struggled against they will not have to face in their matchup against the Black Bears. The Black Bears do not have three beating lines to send out, and they do not have a line at the caliber of Xu and Havlin, although almost nobody does. As a result, Charlotte should be much more competitive in the beater game and should face far fewer press attempts and be able to find sustained success in the quadball game. Additionally, the Aviators struggled to get sustained looks at the flag runner during SOP against Forge, although that can be almost entirely attributed to Xu and Havlin’s experience and dominance. While Davis will be absent, and thus the game’s most prolific seeking threat, the Aviators should still be in good hands, as Tony Bonadio and Austin Cruz have both been proven to be capable seekers when given a solo look at the flag runner. Altogether, the outlook for Charlotte in this series is much more positive.
The Black Bears will have a tough time competing in this series. The Aviators are bringing a much larger roster with much more opportunity to rest and avoid injury. Nakanishi and Reiken will carry much of the weight in this matchup, and if the Aviators get a clear edge in the beating game the Black Bears will not have the numbers or stamina to keep up with a quick and physical quadball game. The quadball game will have to be predicated on ball movement that is precise while avoiding being slow. As an offensive identity, this may be difficult to execute throughout the course of a series. Stringing together multiple passes while hoping to avoid even a single mistake on any pass or catch is easier in theory than in execution. The lack of depth for the Black Bears may catch up to them quickly, as the Aviators will likely have more energy and players to apply pressure than the Black Bears have to evade it. While the quadball game seems like a vulnerability, they may have a legitimate chance at finding success in the seeking game. If the Aviators find success in the quadball game, their beaters may be taken away from the seeking game, allowing open looks for seeker Ugochukwu “Ugo” Nwadike. If the Black Bears find themselves in this situation, they may be willing to take the chance at the 35 points.
Considering all of the previously mentioned factors, the Aviators seemed primed to bounce back a lackluster performance against Forge. The sheer numbers and talent of the players will provide for a very tough matchup for the Black Bears. Add onto the fact that this is a super series where the Black Bears will be additionally exhausted, it is tough to see a situation where they can consistently compete throughout the course of the series.
Prediction: 3-0 Charlotte
Washington Admirals Vs Ottawa Black Bears
Admirals remain the only franchise that the Black Bears have ever taken a regular season game or series off of, winning the matchup 2-1 in 2018. Washington enters the weekend without a win and with a lot of turnover at the top of the roster, on top of a lack of beater depth, which made them difficult to face last year. With the season still young and the team looking to integrate new pieces, Washington is—in theory—a candidate for an upset.
Ottawa, another competitor this weekend, is bringing a short roster of only 13 players, with key contributors from past seasons missing. The Admirals may look vulnerable, but they remain an extremely physical team, which Ottawa has struggled to contend with on both ends of the field in the past. Admirals’s top beaters, headlined by Colin Bourn and Adrian Koretsky, should be a tough matchup for Black Bears beaters Zach Reiken and Lex Nakanishi. A dominant showing in their matchup will allow Admirals to break out a more aggressive defense, and let star chasers like Riley Starrs, Shane McConaghie, and Julia Rankin run in transition.
In order for Ottawa to swing an upset, their beating core will need to dominate the beater play, and be able to play a large amount of minutes. In order to slow down this physical Washington team, the Black Bears will need to obtain and maintain dodgeball superiority. They will also need to get flag runner catches. With a strong, up and coming seeker in Ugochukwu “Ugo” Nwadike and the possibility of Alex Naftel making a seeking appearance again, like we saw in the Washington series last year, the seeking game could be really interesting.
Prediction: 3-0 Washington
