Fast Takes with Fast Break: MLQ Championship Edition (Part 1 of 2)
Tomorrow, August 17th, MLQ Championship begins! 6 teams have already advanced to the quarterfinals, and 6 more fight for the last 2 spots. Our writers have provided you coverage and predictions all season, so we can’t leave you hanging now! Whether you’re traveling to Howard County or plan on watching from home, we’ll count down the hours until the T-Time preshow with our Fast Takes. This is the first article of our 2-part series, going over the 6 teams fighting through the play in.
Toronto Raiders-
The Toronto Raiders season started off strong with a 3-0 sweep of Cleveland. That would serve as the high point of their season as they haven't been able to get a win since. However, their efforts have kept multiple games close, specifically in games 2 and 3 in the Detroit series. A similar story in their Minneapolis series where two of the three games were relatively competitive. This is a team that is the embodiment of close but no cigar. They have individual chasers that can crank up the physicality and their beaters as a whole can keep them relatively competitive in games. However, the inconsistency of their half court offenses, often because of the inability to sustain multiple passes cripples consistent plans of attack. They are also prone to being pressed as their inability to pass can lead to easy turnovers. However, something this team has going for them is the ability to catch a flag runner.
The goal for Toronto this weekend should be to fight the narrative history for Canadian teams. The power rankings have them as the 13th overall team in the league and the 12th best team at champs. Even winning a game or two can be massive in building momentum and changing the storylines for next summer. An early morning matchup against Charlotte is a tough way to start their Championship run, as the Aviators are getting healthy at the right time. A loss might not be a death sentence as this puts them in a potential matchup with the loser between Minneapolis and the winner of Washington/Kansas City. Playing only one game while the other teams have to battle through multiple games can see them playing well rested in a potentially more favorable matchup. The key for them will absolutely be the ability to string passes and handle a press/higher levels of pressure and try to catch the flag runner to help offset the inability to score consistently.
Percentage of making quarter finals: 5%
Percentage of making semi finals: 0%
Percentage of making finals: 0%
Charlotte Aviators-
The Charlotte Aviators arrive in Howard County this weekend representing the fourth seed of the East division in the heart of the play-in bracket. The Aviators have a tough task ahead of them, as they start their quest out of the play-in bracket at 8:30 a.m. on Saturday against the Toronto Raiders. That would only account for one of the three or four possible wins needed to advance to the championship bracket. Due to the difficulty of the path that the Aviators must trek, their goal for this weekend is to make it out of the play-in bracket.
A goal should be challenging yet attainable, and given the Aviators’ opponents and schedule, making it out of the play-in is just that. To illustrate this, all of their potential paths to the championship bracket will be explored and the likelihood of each path coming to fruition will be determined. The first part of determining this is by taking a look at the roster.
The Aviators should feel good about the roster that they are bringing to Howard County. They are bringing a full 25-player roster with all of their top contributors present. Ryan Davis and Celine Richard, making her season debut returning from an injury suffered at US Quadball Cup in April, headline this roster. These two present a level of top end talent that most teams in the play-in bracket cannot match. Davis is especially of importance, as their ability as a seeker in a best-of-one bracket can swing any game in Charlotte’s favor. In addition to these two, there is plenty of talent to fill out the roster. The beating core, with the addition of Richard, is the fullest it has been all season, and should allow the Aviators to go up to three lines deep, which will be essential to meet the demands of a play-in run. To complement the beaters, all of Charlotte’s most prominent chasers will be available this weekend. With a wealth of players with ball-carrying experience and good complementary beaters, the Aviators should be primed to put plenty of points on the board. Altogether, this is a roster primed to compete in every matchup this weekend. The following is a map of what those matchups may be and how the Aviators fare.
Charlotte wins out:
Every scenario for the Aviators begins with a matchup against the Raiders. Both teams have struggled in the regular season, but considering the strength of the divisions, the Aviators were a bit more competitive. Charlotte gets the edge here in what should be an exciting seeker matchup between Ryan Davis and Christos Kaldis. Charlotte has about a 60% chance of a win here.
If the Aviators dispatch Toronto, they face the New Orleans Curse next, who may be the toughest team in the play-in bracket. The Curse have a mix of high-end talent and depth, paired with a stout defense that should give the Aviators trouble. Curse seems to have the matchup advantage even considering the seeking ability of Davis, leaving the Aviators only a 45% chance at winning this game.
If Curse falls to the Aviators, Charlotte would face one of Washington, Kansas City, or Minneapolis. The Aviators likely do not have a distinct matchup advantage against any of these teams, but they also are not incredibly disadvantaged. Washington and Kansas City would have a slight edge, while they should be very even with Minneapolis. The Aviators would have a 45% chance of beating Washington or Kansas City and a 50% chance against Minneapolis.
Altogether given these odds, the Aviators have just over a 12% chance of winning out in this path and making the championship bracket.
Charlotte loses to Toronto:
This path starts much like the other path ends, as the Aviators would play the loser of the game between Minneapolis and the winner of Kansas City versus Washington. Charlotte would start with a 45% chance to advance against either Kansas City or Washington, and a 50% chance to advance against Minneapolis.
The next two matchups would be against two of New Orleans, Toronto, Kansas City, and Washington. With chances of victory at 45%, 60%, 45%, and 45% respectively, advancing to the championship bracket is no sure thing.
Adding it up, the Aviators have between a 10-15% chance of making the championship bracket through this route depending on the opponents faced.
Charlotte loses to New Orleans:
This path is mostly the same as the last one with just some variation in the order of when they would face certain teams. This path has the same 10-15% chance of advancing to the championship bracket.
In totality, when adding the likelihood of Charlotte advancing through these three paths, there is between a 32-42% chance of the Aviators making the championship bracket.
Considering that there are only two teams to advance to the championship bracket from the play-in bracket and this scenario has three teams favored over the Aviators, these odds seem a bit high. A few factors allow for this like the ability to lose one game and not be eliminated, the variability within a best-of-one format, and calculation error.
In the scenario that the Aviators advance to the championship bracket it is tough to see them advancing any further. Both the San Antonio Soldados and the Chicago Prowl have significant matchup advantages that make it unlikely for the Aviators to have more than a 10% chance of winning an individual game against either team. Given the fact that the championship bracket is a best-of-three format, the odds of the Aviators taking two games off either team and advancing is around 1%.
The same is true for any series that follows, making a reality where the Aviators are the Benepe Cup champions increasingly unlikely. However, given the landscape of the East division and the struggles that Charlotte endured this season, a berth in the championship bracket is admirable enough.
Washington Admirals-
After going straight to the quarterfinals last year thanks to their best ever regular season, the Admirals find themselves back in the play-in bracket and facing a brutal draw. In previous years, this Washington team and this Kansas City Stampede team would profile as the heavy favorites to advance out of the play-in bracket; in this year’s parity-filled league, the two will face off in the first game of the play-in bracket, a game that will be the best first round matchup the play-in bracket has ever seen.
For Washington to win this match as well as the two subsequent matches necessary to make it out of the play-in bracket, the Admirals need to be at their best. The team has looked impressive at points this season; they swept Charlotte, who also profiles as a dangerous play-in team, and they played an impressively close game against Boston in the final game of the series. This provides them with good momentum entering MLQ championships.
No team in the play-in bracket boasts as much chaser depth as the Admirals, and that will be the key for a successful play-in run and beyond. The team has not been quite the lockdown defense they profile as with their chaser depth—as physically deep as their chaser core is, the team has not been perfect in the half court. If Kansas City, even with talented drivers like Ryan Mehio and Riley Usami, tries to win by driving through the teeth of Washington’s defense, the Admirals will bottle them up. However, if Kansas City leans on interplay between chasers and beaters, which they have been able to do for stretches, the Stampede may be able to hit Washington at their weakest point.
Washington’s beaters have played well this year, with Adrian Koretsky emerging as a superstar with partners Colin Bourn and Robert Rice who have played well, but the team's beaters and chasers are not always on the same page on either side of the ball. This has left Washington unable to match New York and Boston in the regular season. No team in the play-in profiles the same type of threat as the Titans or the Forge, but Washington still needs to display a high degree of cohesiveness between beaters and chasers, which they have in their best moments this season.
Even if Washington gets through Kansas City, they will still need to beat Minneapolis who have struggled this season but profile as a dangerous team, and likely one of Charlotte or New Orleans after that. There is no team that Washington can’t beat here, but no team is going to be an easy win. Ultimately, expect Washington’s destiny to come down to Kansas City, a rematch between the two teams for the second spot out of the play-in bracket seems likely. Washington has proven they get stronger with each look at an opponent, so ultimately, expect them to beat Kansas City in the game that counts, even if Washington loses the first matchup.
Out of the play-in, Washington faces either Chicago or San Antonio. Neither team is perfect, but Chicago has displayed better cohesion than Washington and San Antonio offers the type of top-tier beating that Washington has struggled against. Washington has the juice to push both of these teams, and a three-game series would not be a surprise, but a return to the semifinals looks unlikely.
Chance to make the quarterfinals: 70%
Chance to make the semifinals: 15%
Kansas City Stampede Preview-
Despite a turbulent season of ups and downs in the chaotic South Division, the Kansas City Stampede successfully punched their ticket to MLQ Championship, sweeping League City and cementing themselves as a dangerous, fast-paced threat coming into the play-in bracket. Stamina is key in this bracket, and with the Stampede bringing a full-roster of 21, they are positioned to out-athlete the majority of the teams in the play-in over the course of several games. Although they will be missing some of their key female players including Madi Namanny, Keighlyn Johnson, and Anya Ortiz, Stampede’s women have proven all season that they have the athleticism to play longer minutes without a drastic dip in their performance. Expect their beater corps, featuring a number of transition threats, to still be able to push the pace and provide ample opportunities for their chasers to trample on any team they face.
Kansas City is slated to first face the Washington Admirals. Although the Admirals sport the better record on the season, their beater corps lead by Adrian Koretsky and Colin Bourn are sure to struggle to keep up with the depth of speed and physicality that each beater pair from the Cattledome is sure to bring. As long as the Stampede push the pace here, they can avoid slower half-court offenses where it is more difficult to get dodgeballs on the ground and dunk on Washington’s hoop defenders. Kansas City also sports an advantage in the seeking game, with five catches between JD Hopton, Ryan Dickey, and Ben Engels, all of which will be rostered as opposed to Washington’s mere two catches on the season, both by UVA standout Zan Siddiqui.
If Kansas City wins over Washington, they will be poised to face off against the Minneapolis Monarchs, a team stacked with veteran beaters including Nicole Nelson and Ben Schlueter who both had standout performances in their recent series against Toronto. The Monarchs also notably thrive in transition with speedy threats like Max Meier, Ben Zimet, and Emma Persons. This series would come down to how these teams fare in the open field. While the Monarchs are certainly quick, the Stampede may have an edge in physicality with standouts Lauren Smith and Ryan Mehio able to make big hits to stop fast breaks. As long as the Stampede’s beaters are able to tie up the Monarch’s beaters in these transition scenarios, their chasers can look to win out on the open pitch in true Southern fashion. Minneapolis, however, are a favorite coming into this play-in matchup, having taken this matchup last year and are certainly in the conversation for making it to the quarterfinals once again.
The play-in bracket’s other favorite, New Orleans, also poses a major threat to Kansas City’s quarterfinals aspirations as they lost this matchup 2-1 during the regular season. The last game of that series, however, looked much more dominant for the Stampede, and if that is a reflection on fatigue felt by New Orlean’s shorter roster, they likely have a better shot to win out against the Curse here considering the grueling nature of the play-in. Underestimating the dynamic duo of Josh Mansfield and Alex Pucciarelli has been the downfall of numerous teams, and Kansas City will need a plan for how to shut down this pair if they want to succeed.
Regardless of whether Kansas City goes undefeated in the play-in or not, they are sure to make quick work of teams like Charlotte and Toronto if they end up in the losers side of the bracket. As a result, their chances of making it to the quarters are higher as they can look to take that potential final matchup against the Monarchs or Curse towards the end of the play-in where their depth can shine. Making it to the quarterfinals would be more than just a season success for Kansas City. It could also mean a potential shot at a rematch against the South Division Champions, the San Antonio Soldados, who a short rostered Stampede narrowly lost to at the start of the season. Knowing the scrappy nature of this team, this rematch would be an ideal bookend to a wild season for the Stampede.
Chance Breakdown:
Make it Out of the Play-in: 75%
Win Quarterfinals: 23%
Win Semifinals: 1%
Win Finals: 1%
Minneapolis Monarchs-
This weekend the Minneapolis Monarchs are heading back to Maryland for MLQ Championships. Unlike their trips in 2021 and 2022, the franchise is entering Howard County in the play-in bracket rather than as division champions. Last season, the Monarchs took flight and made it to the championship bracket unscathed yet their season ended at the quarterfinals to New York, the same place their season ended the previous two summers. Will the Monarchs make it out of the play-in again? If they do, will they finally get past the place their season has ended three years in a row? Let’s break down their chances for the weekend.
The Monarchs are looking to repeat and win a spot in the championship bracket. Last season they certainly turned some heads when they beat the Kansas City Stampede and the Boston Forge, two teams many thought would leave the play-in. This year, Minneapolis enters as one of the favorites to make it to the championship bracket. The franchise has the deepest beater corps of any of the wild card teams, boasting three solid pairs. Their biggest competition usually has one or two pairs they use in close situations. The other three seeds they might see, the Washington Admirals and the New Orleans Curse, each have one pair they heavily rely on in tight games: Adrian Koretsky and Colin Bourn (WAS), and Josh Mansfield and Alex Pucciarelli (NOLA). While the Monarchs don’t have a single standout pair, they do have depth to make these pairs play big minutes and hopefully tire out the opposition. The team’s bye in the first round will give their beater depth even more of an advantage when they take on a team that has played an extra game. During last year’s magical run, Minneapolis relied on some of their younger players to fill vital roles in the chaser game. Ben Zimet, who was a rookie last year, led the team in goals throughout Champs. While I still expect the veteran chasers to have success, the Monarchs will also want some of their new players to find their footing at Champs like last year.
The big difference for the Monarchs this year is their success, or rather lack thereof, in the seeker game. Minneapolis caught in five out of the eight games they played last season. This year, they’ve only caught in four out of twelve. In 2023, flag catches are what propelled the Monarchs past the competition. Considering they’ve had varying success in the seeker game this season, they will need to rely more on goals and less on catches, especially with seeker Mike Devine’s injury status after the Toronto series being questionable. If the Monarchs can get in transition and capitalize on their beater depth, Minneapolis should be one of the two teams to make the championship bracket.
If Minneapolis makes it out of the play-in, they will face the San Antonio Soldados in the quarterfinals, the spot that has haunted the Monarchs for the past three seasons. While a wild-card team has never eliminated a team in the championship bracket, the Monarchs might match up well against the Soldados. In 2021 and 2023, when Minneapolis faced Boston and New York in the quarterfinals, they got blown out. When they played San Antonio in 2022, the games were closer. Both the Monarchs and the Soldados thrive in transition, and a series between the two teams will likely result in a high scoring affair. San Antonio has only caught one more flag than Minneapolis this season, meaning inconsistency in seeking applies to both teams. If the series turns into one where the Soldados and the Monarchs keep quickly trading goals, Minneapolis could edge out a win with a catch. Even if they don’t leave Maryland making it past the quarterfinals, it would be a major step forward to have their quarterfinal series last three games. In previous seasons the Monarchs lost these series rather quickly, and always in two games. Making it to the semifinals or pushing the quarterfinals to a three-game series would leave the Monarchs happy migrating home for the winter.
Breakdown:
Make it Out of the Play-In: 80%
Win the Quarterfinals: 18%
Win the Semifinals: <1%
Win the Finals: <1%
New Orleans Curse-
Another year for Curse, another play-in bracket. After starting the season in dramatic fashion against League City, and grabbing another series victory against Kansas City at the SuperSeries, getting swept by San Antonio is a disappointing finish, and asks important questions of this team as they prepare for day one of championships.
Is the team functionally deep enough to maintain its play over the course of the day? Coming to MLQ championships with 17 players is a significant improvement over previous years, but might be a little disappointing after rostering 21 at the beginning of the year against League City. A lot of minutes will be required from Shelby Cascio, Marcellus Lewis, and Veronica Spicer to fulfill gender rules. It’s a gigantic ask over the course of a long tournament and still quite difficult if we boil it down to just day one. Curse lost Emily Thompson to injury early in the season, and Jaime McCarroll will also miss Championships. How these three hold up over the course of the tournament will go a long way to determining how successful the team can be.
Can New Orleans break a press? San Antonio saw enormous success throughout the series, notably the Game 2 blowout, pressing ball carriers Ben Mertens and Charlton Trammel. While Curse certainly found a better offensive rhythm in Game 3, the team will need both to provide consistent and reliable point guard play. It’s no secret that this iteration of Curse has, at times, looked out of ideas in the half court. It’s quadball, sometimes the game bogs down. This weekend Mertens and Trammel will need to radiate patience and leadership during those moments. Every possession extended is a goal saved.
How will New Orleans rely on its dodgeball players? One of the true strengths of this team is the reliable and consistent output from a talented and experienced beating core. Josh Mansfield, Alex Pucciarelli, Michael Sanders Valdes, and Sarah Kneiling are a formidable foursome. While the output is reliable and consistent, how advantages are accomplished has not been. This core likes to push the pace of the play and put dodgeballs on the ground at hints of opportunity. They can allow the game to become erratic, sometimes in necessary fashion,I previously mentioned New Orleans can look out of ideas at times offensively, sometimes not. The coordination between dodgeball and quadball players has seen improvement as a whole this year but on a game by game basis can still fray. Curse’s dodgeball players will form the identity of each game they play on day one, making sure the rest of the team is clued in will be their responsibility.
What’s size good for? This might be the biggest team at the tournament. Tall, long, and strong. Up and down the roster there’s advantage to be had in the size department. At times this season, Curse has used that to great effect. I waxed soliloquy earlier this season talking about what this meant for the team on the defensive end, and by and large, teams are finding it difficult to score against a set New Orleans defense on first attempts. On first attempts. Too often this year that same defense has failed to fall on, or beat their opponent to, loose balls. Rebounding has been lethargic and allowed for previously accounted for driving lanes to come open. Keeping opponents to one possession will be crucial to success at Championships.
How bad do they want it? New Orleans has never qualified for day two of MLQ Championships, and despite the question marks outlined above, this team really does have the best chance they’ve ever had. There’s been a refinement to this program that can be credited to the coaching staff of Ben Mertens, Josh Mansfield, and Veronica Spicer. There’s been leadership shown throughout the roster with huge contributions this season from PJ Mithcell, Shelby Casico, and seeker Carson Running. Ebli De La Rosa, Nicholas Mueller, Carter Shields, and Griffin Parr have exhibited commitment to success in limited minutes. For all the questions, it really just comes down to this one. Energy, Effort, and Enthusiasm are like super glue. They can epoxy just about any shortcoming. A committed Curse roster can accomplish more this weekend than they ever have before.
New Orleans will be taking the most talented and refined team they’ve had in quite a while to Championships. They’ll give any team they play trouble. Even in the most recent San Antonio series, their worst of the season, they showed in Game 3 their ability to play with South Division Champions
The recipe for success always seems the same to me. Play great defense, control the dodgeballs, restrict transition, don’t turn the quadball over, trust Running to catch flags. It’s a team tailor made to get hot and ‘surprise’ everyone. I wouldn’t be, and you shouldn’t be either.
Fundamentally, humans lack a firm grasp on probabilistic thinking. If I told you something was 97% likely to happen, and it didn’t, you’d tell me I was wrong. I’d tell you you don’t understand what 97% means.
New Orleans vs Toronto - NO to win Highly Likely
New Orleans vs Charlotte - NO to win Moderately Likely
New Orleans vs Kansas City - NO to win Highly Likely
New Orleans vs Washington - NO to win Moderately Likely
New Orleans vs Minneapolis - NO to win Highly Likely
New Orleans to win Play-In - Somewhat Likely
New Orleans to get out of Play-In Bracket - Likely
New Orleans vs Chicago - Unlikely victory
New Orleans vs San Antonio - Unlikely victory
But Noah! If New Orleans is so ‘HIGHLY LIKELY’ to win all these games why wouldn’t they be ‘HIGHLY LIKELY’ to win play in or make it out of play in??? Try multiplying seven tenths by itself one time nerd. There’s a lot of variance out there. Live a little.
Tune in to part 2 of our Fast Takes at 5:30 PM (ET), where we cover our quarterfinal teams, our final power rankings article at 6:30 PM (ET), and finally tune into the MLQ Network for the Pre-Champs T Time later tonight at 7:30 PM (ET)!
