Fast Takes with Fast Break: MLQ Championship Edition (Part 2 of 2)
Tomorrow, August 17th, MLQ Championship begins! 6 teams have already advanced to the quarterfinals, and 6 more fight for the last 2 spots. Our writers have provided you coverage and predictions all season, so we can’t leave you hanging now! Whether you’re traveling to Howard County or plan on watching from home, we’ll count down the hours until the T-Time preshow with our Fast Takes. This is the second article of our 2-part series, going over the 6 teams preparing for the quarterfinals.
Austin Outlaws-
The Outlaws have qualified for the main champs bracket, but for the first time in team history they are not the first seed in the South. Austin may have to go through some tougher competition now if they want to complete the 4-peat in their championship aspirations.
Goals
To put it simply, the goal for the Outlaws is to get to the finals. This roster had a major overhaul before the season began, so if Austin can prove they are still as good as ever on the national stage, that will give them the confidence they need going into 2025. That being said, following the slip up to League City, Austin has really been the best team in the South, and the team has been playing together extremely well. There is definitely a world where the Outlaws win it all and keep the dynasty alive. Going up against Boston in the first round definitely makes this tougher though. Frankly, if the Outlaws lose a tight 2-1 series, I don’t think you can call this a failure of a season. Boston is a very good team, and if Austin can go punch for punch with one of the favorites to win the title, then it’s a job well done for Austin. Overall, to definitively call this season a success and the roster moves successful, I believe a finals berth is necessary for the Outlaws.
How far can the Outlaws realistically go?
The Outlaws path to the finals will be extremely tough. A quarterfinal matchup with Boston, followed up by likely a semifinal with Chicago, and of course maybe seeing the Titans in the finals, Austin will have to beat every top team to win, which is why the percentage chance of them doing so will be low.
Austin WINS against Boston – 45%
I think Forge are ever so slightly favored, but don’t count out Austin just yet
Austin WINS against CHI/Play-in – 45%
If they advance, I don’t see Austin’s chances falling, but Chicago is still a better team right now
Austin WINS the Championship against NY/SA/DET/Play-in – 33%
This chance is mainly reflective of the Outlaws against New York. Austin can beat any other team on that side, but I foresee Titans getting to the finals, hence the low chance.
Doing the math, that gives Austin a 7% chance to win it all. It’s certainly low, but not impossible. The Outlaws will have a tough road, but they have the championship pedigree to win it all. It will be intriguing to see how it all shapes out.
Boston Forge-
It’s the 2023 MLQ Championship all over again; the Boston Forge have clawed their way out of the play-in bracket, only to find themselves staring the MLQ-powerhouse Austin Outlaws in the eyes.
Last year, this story didn’t have a happy ending. Austin knocked Boston out of the Championship bracket in two fell swoops: 220-145 in Game 1, and 160-135 in Game 2. This went the way most people expected it to. Boston had been beaten by the Minneapolis Monarchs, and the exhausted team was facing a team that was unrivaled in the entire league. But here we are, a year later, and we have the exact same story. This time, the Forge dodged the play-in bracket, and are looking the Outlaws in the eye once more.
The only question is…is it time for Boston’s happy ending?
Safe to say that while some of the facts of this year resemble last year, this situation is very different. Boston avoided the play-in bracket, and they’re facing the Outlaws fresh-faced and with a 25-person roster standing behind them. Since they’re not in the playing bracket, this also means that Boston has time to prepare for the Outlaws, rather than taking them on, exhausted and unprepared, as in 2023. And this year Austin isn’t as untouchable as they once were. The League City Legends have taken a series away from them, and the San Antonio Soldados took a game off them. While their season has been looking better, it had a rocky start, which has put their Championship capability in question. All of this means that Boston’s Championship hopes are looking bright.
In this writer’s opinion, Forge has a decent chance of bringing down the hammer on the Outlaws. If any game at Champs is going to be won by the beaters, it’s this one. Boston is a team that often relies heavily on their strong beater core, and this game will be one of them. If Austin’s Jackson Johnson and Bailey Fields don the white headband this weekend instead of the black, that’s going to give Boston’s beating core the advantage. And there’s the fact that Forge has higher quality beating depth, which means if this series runs the three-game course, Boston has a leg up in that area as well.
So if Boston, or more accurately, Boston’s beaters, manage to take the Outlaws out of the running, then they’re facing the winner of the Chicago Prowl vs. one of the play-in bracket winners series. Which means that Boston is likely going to be facing the Prowl in the semi-finals. Boston has a decent shot of declawing Chicago here as well, but the focus is going to be less on the beaters, and more on the chasers.
Boston has the chasing talent to bring it against the Prowl. You know the players; Carsen Olazaba will shine on defense, Peter Lawrence will bring the shots and the stops, and Sena Morimoto will shine on offense. One particular matchup that will be interesting to watch will be Athena Mayer’s talent as a hoop defender when challenged by excellent scoring threats like Ally Manzella and Emma Vasquez.
And while the chasing side will be more important than the beating side against Chicago, Boston’s beating depth will have a leg-up against the Prowl’s. Forge has a level of talent throughout their beater depth that Chicago just can’t compete with. But still, this series will not be a walk in Maryland for the Forge.
If Boston manages to take out Chicago, that puts them in the finals. While there are many teams that could end up on top on the other side of the bracket, it’s worth noting that Boston has already beaten the most likely finals contender: the New York Titans. It was one game, but the series was a close one, and it was all the way at the beginning of the regular season.
All this means that Boston Forge is a team to watch throughout the weekend. While they have a challenging road ahead of them, the hill they have to climb to reach the Benepe Cup is not impossible. Which means that Boston’s real goal this weekend should be to get the happy ending they’ve been working towards since they first picked up the hammer: to win it all.
Breakdown:
Boston Forge wins against Austin Outlaws in the quarter-finals: 65%
Boston Forge wins against the winner of the Chicago Prowl vs. Play-In Bracket Winner in the semi-finals: 55%
Boston Forge wins it all: 25%
Detroit Innovators-
The Road So Far: What a season it has been for the Detroit Innovators! The team started off the season with plenty of hope and anticipation for this iteration’s talent laden roster and the Motor City side did not disappoint, rolling to a 10-2 record, their best season ever. The team’s two losses came in their first series of the season against the Chicago Prowl, two losses which were incredibly close: Game 1 featured a tied game at 105-100 before Chicago went on a 2-0 run to end the game and in Game 3, despite a gutsy Game 2 win, the Innovators couldn’t dig out of an 0-8 hole that Chicago dumped on them. The Innovators rebounded nicely three weeks later by sweeping the Toronto Raiders in Detroit, a series which was largely out of reach of the Canadian side with two Christos Kaldis flag catches giving the Raiders a brief ray of hope in Games 2 and 3. Last on the docket for Detroit was their home SuperSeries against Minneapolis and Cleveland. The Innovators handily swept Cleveland, further showing their dominance in the Toledo Derby while Games 1 and 2 against the Monarchs were close affairs, followed by a dominant Game 3 performance by Detroit resulting in two sweeps.
Goals for champs: Detroit was selected over the Austin Outlaws by the New York Titans as their quarter finals opponents, and this matchup should both thrill and excite. A concrete, attainable goal for the Innovators at Champs should be a semifinals appearance which on paper might seem outlandish to the casual follower, but in reality is highly plausible. Detroit is a young, hungry, scrappy team that has nothing to lose from this bout with the Titans, who have everything to lose if they drop even one game to Detroit. This series will be the perfect showcase of the past three seasons of development and cultivation of homegrown talent that has been the centerpiece of Head Coach Kaegan Maddelein’s masterplan. In contrast to Maddelein’s scrappy upstarts, the Titans have been the de facto favorites to hoist the Benepe Cup at MLQ Champs with all but one FastBreak News ranker putting them at No. 1. For the Titans, heavy weighs the crown of expectation. If New York is unable to sweep the Innovators 2-0, despite advancing, many on this talent laden super team will view it as a failure, as ghosts of their past a la Charlotte in 2021 resurface, a season which saw New York make it to the finals where they were thoroughly outclassed by an Austin squad who won their third title. A stretch goal for the Innovators in Howard County would be making the finals which, should they get past New York into the semis, will likely be against San Antonio whose UTSA core has much history with the Innovators UM core.
Percentage to make the semis: 50%
This Detroit team has all the makings to upset the Titans, having slowed down multiple teams this year into SWIM range scenarios with seeker Neil Peterson earning the chant “Death, Taxes, and Neil catches.” While New York facing off against Prowl in the Finals might be the supposed season script, that particular storyline will have to wait to be made in the same Hollywood backlot that made the 2000 hit film “Remember the Titans.” If Detroit can pick up a win in Game 1, New York very well might have to watch the finals from the stands on Sunday.
Percentage to make the finals: 25%
After beating NY, getting to the Finals entails beating either San Antonio or the play-in team, likely Minneapolis. Both teams are favorable matchups for the Innovators for different reasons. In the case of the Soldados, the primary shortcoming of the Innovators—their lack of beating depth—is a moot point because SA also faces the same issues as they too rely on two primary pairs. If they meet Minneapolis, the Innovators have already proven that they can not only play close games with the Monarchs but also dethrone them as they did in the regular season.
New York Titans-
Season so far:
This summer, the New York Titans mostly followed through on the regular season benchmark of an 18-0 promise. Going 11-1, they have shown depth and dominance throughout every series against the rest of the East division. While Boston gave them a bit of a scare and their only loss of the season, New York held steadfast and proved they are every bit the contender everyone (including Josh Johnson) thinks they are. They have not only proved elite excellence with lines that include Jon Jackson, Josh Johnson, Molly Potter, and Lindsay Marella, but have also cultivated numerous stars-in-the-making with Ryan Leary, Shakthi Kodeswaran, and Amiri Rivera Sillah. If depth was the issue at the start of the season, it's definitely not anymore.
Goals for championships:
New York are the favorites to win. They have been all season, ever since Josh Johnson appeared on their roster. You take a team that was one goal away from the finals last season and, despite some huge losses, like USNT’s Leo Fried and Janko Gvozdenovic, add Johnson and several key role players, this team is made for greatness. The Titans have been building for this moment the past few years and are hoping that the culmination of their efforts will be them hoisting the Benepe Cup on Sunday evening.
Expected Path:
The Titans chose the Detroit Innovators as their quarterfinals match up, over the defending champions, the Austin Outlaws. Can't say I blame them. This Detroit team is more than meets the eye though. Former Titan, and likely 2024 North division MVP, Leo Fried will play huge minutes alongside USNTDA’s Ryan Hsu and Rei Brodeur to try to contain the Titan’s key pieces. While Titan's beater corps might get tied up with Hsu/Brodeur’s energetic play and David Banas and Brooke Smiley’s conservative hoop zone, New York's chasers should be able to easily wear down Detroit's best players and get up enough to points to where even Detroit's clutch seeker, Neil Peterson, won’t be able to save the Innovators from elimination.
Likelihood of advancing to the semifinals: 90%
In the semifinals, the story should be more or less the same for the Titans. A fresh San Antonio Soldados squad coming off a likely 2-0 quarterfinals win over a worn out play-in team should provide ample talent to make New York sweat a little, but not too much. While Javi Tijerina, Kyle Bryant, Jess Markle, and USNT’s Daniel Williams will give New York’s beaters a physical run for their money, the Titans chasers will prove again that efficient and meticulous offense reigns supreme over fast and furious, run-and-gun offenses like San Antonio’s. While San Antonio will have moments of big momentum and maybe even steal a game, New York should come out of this series ready for an attempt at a championship
Likelihood of advancing to the finals: 70%
The finals will undoubtedly be between the New York Titans and either Chicago Prowl, Boston Forge, or Austin Outlaws. Any three of these teams will be the biggest challenge the Titans have faced this season, especially in the beater game. On the Austin Outlaws, you have the defending champions- with a chip on their shoulder to prove they aren't dead like everyone claims. With players like Kaci Erwin and Augustine Monroe gone, younger players have had to step up and older players have taken on bigger roles, especially with the departure of Josh Johnson. But much of the Outlaws core is alive and well, and ready to possibly defend their title against a New York team hungry for their first championship.
In Boston you have a huge rematch from earlier this season. Boston gave New York their only loss of the summer, all while missing their leading scorer at the time, Carsen Olazaba. The Havlin/Xu and Collier/Dillmann combination creates chaos for the Forge chasers to score in transition and in no-dodgeball opportunities. New York has a lot of options to attack Boston with, but Devin Lee and Rachel Ayella-Silver combined with Tate Kay and Tessa Mullins, will be needed to mitigate the damage from Boston's beaters while also creating for their chasers on offense. However, between seekers Kellan Cupid and Mohammed Haggag, New York should have little to worry about in the SOP game if they can get their seekers good looks.
Lastly, Chicago Prowl. Everyone's talking about it, New York vs. Chicago is the new Austin vs. Boston. If New York wants to tag Prowl back for last year's semi-final loss, they'll have to get through Ally Manzella, Darian Murcek-Ellis, Nathan Digmann, and Ryley Andrews in the chasing game and Tad Walters and Nojus Ausra in the beating game. The Titans will have to withstand high presses and a disciplined 2-2 from Prowl to succeed, and themselves make simple half court plays and not get into a running game. The SOP game is comparable at both beater and seeker, it could really be anyone's game.
Likelihood of winning a championship: 60%
Chicago Prowl-
The Season so Far:
After a 2023 season that featured a relocation, a rebrand, retaking of the North Division championship, and a trip to the MLQ Finals for the first time since 2017, the Chicago Prowl came into 2024 knowing two things: a) they had a two massive holes to fill in the beating game, and b) this roster was still very, very good. Now, coming out of the regular season and into championships, Chicago hopes that only the latter is still true. The season got off to a bit of a rocky start when Chicago played a very close three games against an upstart Detroit team, losing game 2 and getting thoroughly outplayed at beater for much of the series. Chicago in particular struggled in beating around the seekers and weren’t able to secure a single catch. Since that rainy weekend in June though, Chicago has been on a tear, averaging a 218-40 scoreline and posting a 9-0-0 record in flag catches against Toronto, Minneapolis, and Cleveland. During this time they have rotated through a variety of rosters, getting younger players experience and solidifying their beating rotations as they gear up for the most important weekend of the summer.
Goals for Championships:
The mission in Maryland this weekend is simple: Win. The Prowl bring back much of last year’s roster and would like nothing more than a rematch of last year’s semi final against New York, this time for a championship. Chicago is returning most of last year’s roster with plenty of deep bracket play experience, especially if you take into consideration those who have played for Boom Train in each of the previous two seasons. They have shown stellar chaser play all season long, and the beating and seeking has come together over the course of the season to form a team firing on all cylinders at just the right time.
Expected Path:
Their first matchup of the weekend will be Saturday evening, against one of the teams fighting out of the play-in bracket. This is Chicago’s reward for making the finals last year, as any of the teams coming out of the play-in bracket should be an easy matchup. Chicago will have a significant advantage in top-line skill than anyone in the play-in bracket and will have the huge advantage of not having already played two to four games of quadball earlier in the day.
Likelihood of advancing to semifinals: 90%
Things get more complicated in the semi finals, as the winner of the Austin-Boston matchup will be a tougher opponent than any Chicago has faced this season. Chicago would likely prefer Austin, who have struggled in the half-court situations where Chicago is confident and do not present the matchup issues that Boston does. The Forge would present a real test on how well the Prowl have developed their beater lines over the summer. While Chicago has shown they have a top line of beaters who can match anyone, Boston has three. This could pose a real problem through the middle of games when Chicago’s starters take a sub or during SOP situations where Boston can run with much fresher legs. Regardless of the opponent, this series will be one to watch.
Likelihood of advancing to finals: 60%
In the finals Chicago would likely be matched up against New York in a matchup many have been anticipating since the two played in an absolutely electric semifinal last year in Iowa. That series featured three close games with Chicago winning game three in a golden goal scenario, and this matchup would likely deliver more of the same. One area to watch coming into the finals is how difficult the previous series were. Last year Chicago was roundly swept in the finals by an Austin team coming off of a much easier semifinal, and if New York can dispatch their first two opponents with the ease that many expect it could put them in an advantageous position for a finals rematch.
Likelihood of winning championships: 25%
San Antonio Soldados-
The San Antonio Soldados march into MLQ Championships following their best record in the history of their team. The Soldados went through a mass change which included their coaching staff changing hands. This team gained new leaders while losing many veteran leaders they held last year. Despite many of the questions regarding this team and its depth, the Soldados came out and proved who they are to the league. The Soldados, with the momentum of their sweep against the New Orleans Curse, look to carry their offensive progress into championships to prove their worthiness of being the top seed in the South.
Roster:
Chasers-
There is no question of the star power that is within this chasing core. Led by coach David Avila, this chaser core has no shortage of scoring. With 14 different scorers on this team, four of which with more than 20 goals, this team will need to lock in and move the ball around to find the openings in the defenses they face. This team comes in with a near full strength chasing core, though they will be without Catherine Hay and Carlos Prado. The loss of Hay is a big negative for the team as she provides a dependable defender with the ability to score and distribute on the offensive end. Prado also is a significant loss as he can hustle like no other. Prado is elite within the flag runner period, and he provides a little bit of everything on both sides of the pitch. Despite who they may be without, this chaser core and the chemistry with one another has a tall task, but nothing that a 53 goal scorer cannot accomplish.
Beaters-
This team’s beating core is loaded with three powerhouse duos that have the ability to cause havoc this weekend. If any one word would describe this beating core it would be “aggressive”. Each beater on this team has a clear duo to pair with them. Starting at the top, Daniel Williams and Milena Sousa have been electric this season, statistically they combine for 32 stops, 351 drives played, and a plus/minus of +54. This core understands what they need to do in order to keep the dodgeballs safe and use them to help out their chasers. Next, the duo of Kyle Bryant and Javi Tijerina, who have been beating together throughout their college seasons at UTSA, provide a big change of pace. Tijerina and Bryant are a duo that is unwilling to step down from any challenge. While that can come back to bite them, the duo is elite at putting pressure on the other team in order to get their chasers out and running. Last but not least, Kristopher De La Fuente and Jess Markle are both veteran club beaters that understand how to play together at a high level. Markle, who has a limited amount of time played, leads this team in average dodgeballs and De La Fuente and Markle come into Championships as two of the three least scored on beaters on the roster.
Seekers-
The seekers on this team have really sprung out for the Soldados as they have made a big difference in many of the close matches they’ve had this season. The Soldados have caught the flag in 5 out of their 12 regular season matches this season, and a big piece for their seeker core this season has been Kristopher De La Fuente. Prior to this season, De La Fuente had not caught the flag in MLQ, and this season has vaulted into leading the team in catches with three. Ironically, each catch made was in a different series. However, in each game that San Antonio has caught, they have won the game. Their seeker depth does not end at De La Fuente as Trevor Smith opened the Soldados’ season with two catches to help the team defeat the Kansas City Stampede. The duo of De La Fuente and Smith with other options such as Isaac Sueltenfuss will be crucial in securing victories.
Keys To Victory:
Keep Their Cool-
This Soldados team rides highly on emotion. Much of this emotion is derived from their passion and drive, but it can often alter their play. The coaching staff will need to be sure that this team understands what is at stake. The team, when playing with their heads up, is one of the best in the league, but one of the negatives about being as streaky of a team as they are is the low points. This team will need to manage their lines to continue to be as fresh as they can, not just with their physicality but their mental space as well.
Dodgeballs on Defense-
This team, while strong defensively, struggles to get stops in a chaser on chaser defense. In zero dodgeball situations, defensively, they have just a 21% stop rate which is less than four out of six of the potential teams they could run into in bracket play. This Soldados team needs to make sure that dodgeballs are accessible on defense, and they need to make smart decisions in order to ensure they are not left without them.
Take Advantage!-
The Soldados have a high powered offense, but despite their 53% control rate, the Soldados only have scored in 38% of their chances on offense with control. This is a pretty big problem for them as they make it to Championships and deal with other elite beating cores such as a potential matchup against Detroit or New York. The Soldados are one to shoot the ball quite frequently, and against great hoop defending teams, they will need to take advantage of having control and look for lanes and dunks.
Prediction Breakdown:
Round 1:
SA victory vs CLT, WSH, TOR: 90%
SA victory vs MN: 85%
SA victory vs KC or NO: 75%
Round 2:
SA victory vs DET: 60%
SA victory vs NY: 35%
Championships:
SA victory vs CHI: 42%
SA victory vs AUS: 45%
SA victory vs BOS: 37%
We thank all our readers for following our content all season! Don’t forget to check out our final power rankings article at 6:30 PM (ET), and then the MLQ Pre-Champs T Time later tonight at 7:30 PM (ET) on the MLQ Network!
